Let’s Get Ready To Rumble; US economy is showing strong signs of coming back…

Here we are 04/13/2010, exactly 3 months since I had a slight employment diversion. During the 3 months I had an opportunity to take a good look around me and realize that things were not as I remembered them. I had been so busy focused on the insanity that was around me at our office that I had forgotten to look outside or really listen to my clients talk about their experiences with the economy.

What is sad is how easy it is to get caught up in the forecasting, closing and the implementing of what we do and forget that there is a real war outside. Our economy has taken some major hits which has severely impacted all of us in one way or another. I had my head buried so deep in the sand that I didn't realize how vulnerable we are really were, until I ended up on the unemployment line. No one is irreplaceable and I guess that is the lesson that I had to learn. I do think it is a lack of leadership not to be able to make corrections without throwing the baby with the bathwater but that was not my call.

In the end I ended up in a culture where I was already a known entity and had a strong track record of success; so the hope is that after 3 months of soul searching I too will be part of the solution to our National economic issues. The good news is that the US economy is optimistically coming out of its funk slowly but surely. There are many strong signs of recovery in our favor and a few that were not.

Printing shipments were down month to month and year over year. In January 2010 commercial printing shipments were $6.7 billion, down -7.2% compared to 2009. This data is a bit obscure but can be found at the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders also known as the M3 survey has monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. The survey measures current industrial activity and provides an indication of future business trends. The preview for February's report will come out March 24^th. There are a lot of organizations and individuals that take this raw data and manipulate it to formulate their own opinions on the state of our economy. Of interest to those that sell the big iron or are purchasers of the big iron a report that is nicely put together with analysis and commentary is the one produced by WhatTheyThink.com.

Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center, they have just released a current report titled, "North American Monthly Printing Shipments, Issue #52." This report is available for purchase at: https://store.whattheythink.com/monthly-u-s-printing-shipments. I had never really spent much time looking at economics or the reports as they came out till I became unemployed. The old days I would have made a phone call to the company of my choice and would have found myself picking a desk the same day. In this new world I did have a lot of job opportunities but getting the decision makers to pull the trigger on an addition to their payroll budget was not as easy as it used to be. While unemployed I started to pay attention to the financial reports release dates and following what was going on much closer than I had ever done before.

But there are a lot of people looking forward to the "Spring" back of our economy. In an audio report by Jerry Webman, Ph.D. a Senior Investment Officer & Chief Economist for the Oppenheimer Funds I found this report to be very "level headed" and was characterized by cautious optimism. His sentiments can be found all over the economic strata. Many do share Mr. Webman's thoughts and they are easily found. His commentary can be found here: U.S. Economic Recovery in Full Swing--Weekly Market Commentary.

Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) is the largest supply management association in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's membership base includes more than 40,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit association that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.The ISM releases 2 reports a month, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® and the March 2010 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® The ISM used to be known as the Purchasing Managers Index or PMI.

The manufacturing sector has been coming back now for 8 months. WE are now seeing new job creation begin and will continue as the economy recovers. Jobs finally returned in March, however, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 (48,000 were census workers). Manufacturing payrolls rose by 15,000 and construction payrolls by 17,000 which were 2 of the hardest hit and are now showing some reprieve. Temporary employment improved in March by 40,000 which could be a indicator for future job growth as companies retain those employees fulltime when merited. There are all good signs for our industry and the recovery of our economy in the near future.

Here are a few key pieces of the ISM report.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
Mar-10
Index	Series	Series	Percentage	Direction	Rate
	Index	Index	Point		of	Trend*
	March	February	Change		Change	(Months)
PMI	59.6	56.5	3.1	Growing	Faster	8
New Orders	61.5	59.5	2	Growing	Faster	9
Production	61.1	58.4	2.7	Growing	Faster	10
Employment	55.1	56.1	-1	Growing	Slower	4
Supplier Deliveries	64.9	61.1	3.8	Slowing	Faster	10
Inventories	55.3	47.3	8	Growing	From Contracting	1
Customers' Inventories	39	37	2	Too Low	Slower	12
Prices	75	67	8	Increasing	Faster	9
Backlog of Orders	58	61	-3	Growing	Slower	3
Exports	61.5	56.5	5	Growing	Faster	9
Imports	57	56	1	Growing	Faster	7
OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	11
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Faster	8

There are a lot of reports and raw data out there for those that have the time to acquire and distill it. One government site that keeps a nice calendar of all of the key government reports can be found here: http://www.economicindicators.gov/ the National Bureau of Economic Research also keeps a nice list of economic reports and their releases on their New Economic Releases Page.

Pirate Mike